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    Free-fall – A series of postings offering perspective and commentary on art and global environmental issues

    Guest Contributor
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    Free-fall – A series of postings offering perspective and commentary on art and global environmental issues

    by Joe Carlisi

    The Children Know


    Civil authorities have put in place various systems and devices to warn
    people of impending catastrophic events. Detection centers can
    immediately broadcast across all media to alert the public when severe
    and life threatening natural events are about to occur : violent storms,
    tornadoes, earthquakes, tsunamis, etc. Sirens, klaxons and alarms sound
    in real time. Evacuation mandates, location of shelters, emergency phone
    numbers may follow. Uniformed officers are dispatched to direct and
    control traffic.

    Animals, even domesticated ones can sense approaching natural disaster
    long before man’s technical apparatus triggers a warning. Relying on
    instinct and feelings, they have already fled to higher ground . . . safer
    locations, seemingly having been able to read the (imperceptible to
    humans) signs of danger.


    Perhaps children have a similar ability. It would help to explain the
    significant uptick in mental problems in young people.
    The CDC reports:

    Depression and anxiety have increased over time.
    For adolescents, depression, substance use and suicide are important
    concerns. Among adolescents aged 12-17 years in 2018-2019 reporting
    on the past year:

    15.1% had a major depressive episode.
    36.7% had persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness.
    18.8% seriously considered attempting suicide.
    15.7% made a suicide plan.
    8.9% attempted suicide.
    2.5% made a suicide attempt requiring medical treatment.

    These statistics were compiled in 2019 and do not reflect substantially
    higher incidences occurring now, post covid.

    Of course, children have exposure to the same grim media coverage of
    pandemics, climate change, extinction, war and overall meltdown of the
    world around them as adults . . . but not as much. They have not had the
    years of relentless, numbing programming with which the adult human
    herd has been bombarded and shaped. Their instincts and feelings have
    not yet been completely eliminated and shut off. They still have the
    ability to perceive and act directly through them. What they perceive is
    the unfiltered, real extinction scenario that prevails.

    Renowned Swiss psychologist, Roger Piaget observed that cognitive
    development in children occurs through a series of orienting responses.
    When a child perceives something new . . . unknown, for which he/she
    has no prior cognitive experience or action response, a pause occurs . . .
    a moment of internal silence . . . and the new element registers and is
    added to what Piaget called the child’s schema, or stored cognitive items
    much like an action database.

    Adults are generally incapable of this maneuver because they are so
    programmed with acceptable rational explanations that allow them to
    perceive the world only through the largely fictional lens of the herd
    program. New, incoming perceptions that do not fit the template are
    summarily dismissed as fantasy, tricks of the mind, etc. They are literally
    blinded and severely limited in their ability to act on the basis of novel
    input by their filtering system of beliefs. If it doesn’t match pre-existing,
    acceptable explanations then it simply doesn’t exist!

    Sometimes the filter is penetrated or bypassed by a powerful, unexpected
    perception. It sneaks through before the filtering mechanism can
    assemble and floods the cognitive framework. A pause . . . a shock to
    the system . . . a brief moment of internal silence . . . a moment of
    cognitive dissonance occurs. An orienting response. A new cookie in the
    jar.

    Sometimes a work of art can provide the jolt.

    Carnaval
    Although lost in the frenzy and exultation of the moment, the celebrants
    know . . . they know that it is the end . . . the party is over. Their backs
    are turned to the enormous wave that is about to engulf them . . . but
    they can feel it with all of their senses. The wolf whose instincts are
    sharpest has already taken the highest position.
    Free – fall

    ***********************

    Joseph Carlisi – Biography     

    Born and raised in New York City, he earned BA and MA degrees in Philosophy at Hunter College of the City University of New York and then continued his graduate studies in Philosophy and Artificial Intelligence at Massachusetts Institute of Technology working under the mentorship of Marvin Minsky. Joseph worked as a part time content and copy editor for Harvard University Press (science and medicine) while attending M.I.T.     

    After ten years as a university lecturer, researcher and administrator, he started and managed an advertising / public relations firm in San Diego, CA that handled a wide range of commercial accounts. On the academic side, he published a series of seven articles on animal behavior for Harvard Magazine and two books: “A Guide to Personal Power” and most recently “Playing God on the Eve of Extinction”.

    Joseph Carlisi creates oil on canvas paintings that can be described as vivid, surreal and unexpected. His paintings have been exhibited and sold in: Honolulu, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, New York City, Miami, Tokyo, Yokohama, Amsterdam, Berlin and Salvador Brazil.

    Joe’s art is available for purchase.

    Contact him at carlisijoseph@yahoo.com.

    Civic involvement is key to saving Hawaii

    Grassroot Institute
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    Civic involvement is key to saving Hawaii

    Photo by Charley Myers

    By Keli‘i Akina

    One thing I`ve learned from talking to people around the state is that Hawaii’s residents care about the future of our islands — and they have a lot of questions for our elected officials. 

    This week, the Grassroot Institute of Hawaii hosted a series of legislative wrap-ups on Oahu, Maui and Hawaii island. Joining me at the events were my institute colleagues Joe Kent, executive vice president; Malia Hill, policy director; and Ted Kefalas, director of strategic campaigns.

    Keli’i Akina

    At every stop, people were eager to learn more about the institute’s efforts to reform the state’s emergency powers law; reduce barriers to housing; bring taxes, debt and state spending under control; liberalize the state’s cryptocurrency laws; and affect many other issues considered at the recently concluded state legislative session.

    Several people asked whether the emergency powers reform bill now on Gov. David Ige’s desk would be sufficient to protect our constitutional rights. 

    Malia explained that SB3089 — if enacted into law — would go a long way toward restoring Hawaii’s constitutional balance of powers, thus ending the governor’s ability to extend states of emergency virtually forever — as he seemed to be doing over the past two years with the COVID-19 lockdowns.

    The bill is not perfect, but it would give the Legislature the power to end an emergency by a two-thirds vote, require justification for the suspension of any laws and add protections in particular against the suspension of the state’s open-records law. 

    On Maui, one attendee asked how we ended up with so many barriers to the creation of new housing. The short answer is that good intentions do not always equal good policy, and good intentions explain why we are bound by so much red tape today. 

    In the absence of a better understanding of simple economics — which apparently isn’t so simple for some people — we now have layers upon layers of land-use regulations and zoning laws at both the state and county levels. We have, in fact, one of the most burdensome regulatory schemes in the nation, with an approval process that can take homeowners and developers fully a decade to navigate. 

    The questions we received reflected a significant local enthusiasm for zoning reform and an end to NIMBYism, and I hope policymakers have noticed that enthusiasm too.

    On the Big Island, we were asked about the accounting shenanigans of the state that emphasize its revenues and downplay its $42 billion of debt and unfunded liabilities. Joe explained that too many of our legislators view the budget like a checkbook, paying attention to only what goes in and what goes out. They ignore the state’s long-term debts, such pensions and healthcare, so as to present a sunnier picture to the public than is warranted.

    As you may have guessed, these were not softball questions. I am particularly grateful to the attendee who challenged us on the issue of Hawaii Tourism Authority funding, making the case for a future for the HTA.

    Our position has been that the tourism industry is more than capable of funding its own promotion, and that the $60 million the Legislature allocated to it this year could be put to better uses, including opening the door to a tax reduction. 

    More important, the funding was approved through the use of “gut and replace,” a practice that denies meaningful public input. It also is a practice that the Hawaii Supreme Court overturned just six months ago. On that basis alone, the HTA funding should be vetoed.

    Nevertheless, the question did give us a chance to affirm that we do support tourism in general, and it opened a necessary discussion on what role the government should play in tourism management and promotion.

    No matter what the topic, all of the questions we received were thoughtful and interesting. But the ones that really touched me were about how people can get more involved in Hawaii’s political process. On every island, in every audience, were civic activists looking to make a difference in their communities and asking what they could do next.

    It was exciting to witness that energy and know that so many people are getting engaged with state and local politics. There is always something that you can do to be heard, whether it’s writing to your legislator or the governor, writing a letter to the editor of your local paper or organizing a community effort to reach out to elected officials.

    As Ted explained, politicians pay attention when they get sincere, original feedback from their constituents. 

    We love that there are so many people looking to be more active in support of liberty and economic freedom. I want you to know that the Grassroot Institute is here to support those efforts however we can, whether through research, outreach tools or events like our legislative wrap-ups.

    Keep sending questions, challenging us, supporting us. Together we can achieve a happier and more prosperous Hawaii. 
    __________

    Keli‘i Akina is president and CEO of the Grassroot Institute of Hawaii

    If You Think Gas Prices Are Bad…

    Tom Yamachika
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    If You Think Gas Prices Are Bad…

    Many of us who drive cars now dread the day when we’ve got to go to the gas station. Between COVID-19, Russia vs. Ukraine, and other economic factors, gas prices have already passed the $5 per gallon mark and don’t appear to be falling anytime soon.

    What we might not know, however, is that there are a lot of different taxes that go into the price at the pump.  Just looking at those imposed at the state and county levels , we start with the state fuel tax of 16 cents per gallon. Then there is a county fuel tax on top of it. The cheapest county fuel tax is here in Honolulu at 16.5 cents per gallon, and it goes up to 24 cents per gallon on Maui.

    Then there is a component called the barrel tax, which is imposed on any imported fuels. Its official name is the environmental response, energy, and food security tax, and it is imposed at $1.05 per barrel. A barrel is 42 gallons so that works out to 2.5 cents per gallon.

    And finally, of course, we can’t forget our state GET, the general excise tax, at 4% of the sales price, to which is added another 0.5% in all counties other than Maui. With a $5 per gallon sales price as an example, this adds another 22.5 cents per gallon.

    That brings us to about 57.5 cents per gallon, just in state and county taxes, so far.

    At our legislature, there is a fair number of people who think that gasoline taxes need to be raised, big time, to combat the environmental threat posed by fossil fuel burning. That’s why in the past few sessions they had proposed a “carbon tax” to pay for the societal costs of pollution, global warming, and so forth. In this past session, the bill was House Bill 2278.  That bill proposed to change the barrel tax for gasoline to $5.27 per barrel initially, increasing in phases to $33.16 when fully phased in. That translates to 12.5 cents a gallon initially and 79 cents a gallon when fully phased in. That would change the state and county tax on a gallon of gas from 57.5 cents to $1.34 a gallon, at least, if adopted and fully phased in.

    And, of course, there are those who don’t think an increase of this magnitude is enough.  The carbon tax proposed by House Bill 2278 started off at about $14 per metric ton of CO2 and increased to about $89 per metric ton, using the conversion factor (per the EPA website) of 0.00887 metric tons of CO2 per gallon of gasoline.  Various groups have suggested that a higher tax would be needed to drive compliance with the state’s net zero emissions goal by 2045.

    In the meantime, the Department of Transportation hasn’t given up on its proposed Road Usage Charge, a project to distribute the cost of road maintenance more equitably among the users of our state’s highways and byways.  The project has been proceeding under the assumption that the road usage charge would replace the fuel tax.  But a road usage charge bill introduced this session, Senate Bill 3313, proposed the road usage charge on top of the fuel tax for electric vehicles, instead replacing the special $50 motor vehicle registration fee for those vehicles.  That bill died this session, but it or something similar could always be introduced next year.  Road usage charges, unfortunately, represent another possible revenue enhancement (translation:  “higher tax”).

    Hmm, that bicycle in the window is looking pretty good right now!

    Germany, the Ukraine and the EU

    Guest Contributor
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    Germany, the Ukraine and the EU

    by Manfred Henningsen

    Emeritus Professor of Political Science, University of Hawaii, Honolulu

    Manfred Henningsen - Department of Political Science, UH Mānoa
    Manfred Henningsen

    Whatever the explanation for the alleged withdrawal of president Steinmeier’s invitation may have been – and official Ukrainian stupidity or arrogance are possible answers – his proximity to his former mentor and ex-chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and his strange friendship with Putin are well known and may have played a role. His participation in negotiating in 2008 the Minsk agreement as the former foreign minister and his support for sustaining the crucial energy supply connections with Russia may have underscored his negative image in the Ukraine.

    Nevertheless, there is a substantial reason for Germany to demand the immediate admission of Ukraine to the EU. This is not just a matter of finally removing the historic mortgage left by the German terror regime in Ukraine during the Second World War. At this political moment, when Putin succeeded Hitler with the delusional obsession of a “mad tsar,” as Navalny called him, the German government should make this demand the primary goal of German foreign policy.

    Gerhard Schroeder

    In the last seven weeks, the Ukrainians have proven what can be said of only a few members of the EU, and certainly not of their neighbors Poland and Hungary, why the EU’s role in the survival of a civil political culture in Europe is not only necessary but must be expanded. They risked and sacrificed their lives thousands of times every day, and with millions of refugees who proved that Putin’s ‘Greater Russian Empire’ cannot compete with a free and democratic Europe. Ukrainians are in the process of giving the EU’s institutional skeleton a spiritual backbone. They alone show the member states of the Union that have forgotten the anti-totalitarian intentions of its founding after the Second World War or have never understood why it is crucial to enrich this EU with political and spiritual substance.

    Whatever the political arguments of Angela Merkel and other German and European politicians from 2008 to 2021 may have been to oppose Ukraine’s membership, these objections have become irrelevant. The Russian invasion and Putin’s megalomaniacal aspirations have shown that there are no limits to him. NATO should have been reinvented, as it were, in order to stop Putin. If it was the oligarchs’ influence on Ukrainian politics and the general susceptibility to corruption that strengthened Merkel and others in their opposition, these deficiencies will not survive Russia’s imperial assault. The country will find itself in a tabula rasa state, which in some respects will be reminiscent of Germany in May 1945.

    Russian troops blocking the Ukrainian military base in Perevalne

    The crucial difference between the two situations, however, will be that Germany had to be liberated from the outside, while Ukraine liberated itself. The consequences of total destruction did not lead, as Harald Jaenner recently traced in his book Wolfszeit (2019), to the immediate self-purification of the country and, above all, not of the political, bureaucratic and intellectual elites. This process took place for decades in both parts of Germany, while the Ukrainians are in the process of going through this process as parallel phenomena to the war.

    The Donbas status referendums in May 2014 were not officially recognised by the Ukrainian government or any UN member state.

    During a two-week trip through Ukraine in the summer of 2016, which began in Lviv and led via Kyiv to Odessa, my brother (Prof. Bernd Henningsen, Humboldt University) and I experienced again and again in conversations with academics and citizens the amazing commitment to Europe and the expectation of being accepted into the EU soon. This incessant confirmation of their European identity was coupled with an astonishing contempt for Putin’s Russia, which has been killing Ukrainian soldiers in the Donbas region since 2014.

    The illustrated memorial plaques in Maidan Square in the center of Kyiv did the rest to underline the contempt. But it was the discovery in a Maidan boutique of a roll of toilet paper with the image of Putin on the outer paper and foul remarks in Cyrillic, reminiscent of a famous Goethe line from his play, Goetz von Berlichingen, which illustrated the contempt particularly vividly.

    Traveling as a German in Ukraine, which Timothy Snyder describes in his book Bloodlands (2010) as a major region of Stalinist and Nazi terror, is constantly commemorated by memorials to the millions of victims of both regimes, the Holodomor and the Holocaust.  Even in the gorge of Babi Yar, where thousands of the Jews remaining in Kyiv were rounded up and shot by the Germans in September 1941, two monuments stand side by side today. They commemorate the Holocaust and the millions of victims caused by the famine by the Stalinist forced collectivization of agriculture, the Holodomor.

    When we asked our interlocutors how they get along with Germans and Russians today, we were regularly surprised by the spontaneous answer. The Germans have come to terms with their past, while the Russians have learned nothing from their history. Putin’s attempt to forcibly revive a defunct empire confirms Anne Applebaum’s characterization of such attempts in her book Twilight often Democracy (2020) as “restorative nationalist nostalgia.”

    Census Bureau turns Hawaii population gain into a loss

    Grassroot Institute
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    Census Bureau turns Hawaii population gain into a loss

    The U.S. Census Bureau overestimated Hawaii’s 2020 population by 6.79%, or 98,812 people, according to an internal review released this month of the 2020 census.

    This practically erases Hawaii’s supposed population growth over the past decade and highlights the state’s astronomical cost of living.

    According to data from the initial 2020 census, Hawaii’s population increased by 6.52% to 1,455,271 between 2010 and 2020. However, in its 2020 Post-Enumeration Survey Estimation Report, the U.S. Census Bureau determined that the population decreased by 0.26%. 

    This decrease for the decade can be attributed to the decline in Hawaii’s population that began in 2016 and continued through 2020, amounting to a net loss of around 22,000 residents. That figure accounts for all births and deaths in the state, and people both leaving and moving to the islands.

    Keli’i Akina, Grassroot Institute of Hawaii president and CEO, said the revised 2020 census figures confirm what the institute had suspected all along.

    Keli’i Akina

    “When the figures came out initially in January, we pretty much thought that there must be a mistake in the data,” he said. “In off-the-record conversations with well-informed census experts, we were assured that updates of the initial data would show a continuing exodus of residents from Hawaii, and that is exactly what happened.”

    In six states — Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Mississippi, Tennessee and Texas — the Census Bureau undercounted the population. The nonprofit Data Center in New Orleans told NPR on Thursday that “a lot of the southern states were hit with disasters, hurricanes while door-to-door work was going on,” which led to many people failing to complete the census. 

    According to the Washington, D.C.-based publication The Hill, the miscounts for Texas and Florida likely cost them additional seats in Congress. The census undercounted their populations by 1.92% and 3.48%, respectively.

    Meanwhile, in eight states — Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island and Utah — the Census Bureau overestimated the populations. 

    The revised census report does not discuss why the 2020 figures were inaccurate, but Eugene Tian, the state’s chief economist, said in the Honolulu Star-Advertiser that one reason for the overcounting in Hawaii might be that out-of-state residents who own homes here were unable to return to their primary residences on the mainland because of the coronavirus lockdowns. Peter Fuleky, an economist at the University of Hawaii, said students in Hawaii for the 2020 spring break might also have been unable to return to their homes on the mainland for the same reason.

    For Hawaii policymakers, these new statistics are a reminder that the state has incentivized its residents to leave and discouraged prospective residents from moving to Hawaii. You can read the stories of many who have left on the institute’s website here.

    Akina said reasons for the exodus include Hawaii’s lack of affordable housing, high taxes, excessive regulations that have choked off business opportunities and the federal Jones Act, which limits shipping competition to the islands and adds to the cost of all goods.

    From a tax standpoint, he added, fewer residents means fewer people to pay taxes — yet the Legislature keeps increasing taxes, spending and debt.

    “If the Legislature and governor — and the counties — do not act quickly to expand individual liberty, economic freedom and accountable government, I am sure we will all see more of our families, friends and neighbors leaving the islands in the days ahead.” 

    Governor urged to review new research before deciding on minimum-wage hike

    Grassroot Institute
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    Governor urged to review new research before deciding on minimum-wage hike

    A popular 2010 study claiming minimum-wage hikes do not cause ‘economic shocks’ has just been reanalyzed and overturned 

    HONOLULU, May 17, 2022 >> The consensus in Hawaii seems to be that Gov. David Ige will sign HB2510, raising the state’s hourly minimum wage from $10.10 to $18 over the next six years. But maybe new research by one of the nation’s leading minimum-wage researchers will help change his mind.

    Economist David Neumark, along with colleagues Priyaranjan Jha and Antonio Rodriguez-Lopez, all of the University of California, Irvine, recently examined a popular 2010 paper often cited in defense of minimum-wage increases and found its methodology to be inadequate and its conclusion erroneous.

    As Neumark, Jha and Rodriguez-Lopez explain in their study — “What’s across the Border? Re-Evaluating the Cross-Border Evidence on Minimum Wage Effects,” published just this month[1] — it can be useful to estimate the “economic shocks” of minimum-wage increases by comparing changes in “local economic areas” that span state borders, since this allows researchers to separate the actual effects of minimum wages from other changes in local economic conditions.

    However, they say, the 2010 paper examining employment in restaurants and other low-wage sectors used “local economic areas” made up of pairs of counties on opposite sides of state borders, without regard to whether their economies were related. As a result, the 2010 paper concluded that minimum wage increases on one side of the border did not reduce employment there in the targeted sectors.[2]

    Neumark’s new study, on the other hand, used a more natural definition for local economic areas — commuting zones that span state borders.

    In an email to the Grassroot Institute of Hawaii, Neumark said commuting zones are a much more compelling way to control for economic shocks because they are defined as “common economic areas.” Some of the county pairs in the 2010 study, by comparison, “may be economically unrelated and hence not serve as good controls. Indeed, as the [new] paper notes, some of the authors of the 2010 study have made this very argument.”

    Neumark’s new study explains that commuting zones are groups of counties with strong commuting ties based on U.S. Census journey-to-work data. Specifically, they are intended for use as spatial measures of local labor markets, which is “not necessarily the case for county pairs: Even if they are contiguous, two isolated U.S. counties may share little or no commuting and economic activity.”

    Thus, Neumark’s new study overturns the results of the 2010 study, finding that the evidence points rather sharply toward restaurant employment declines in response to higher minimum wage.

    “In the short run,” Neumark said by email, “the evidence indicates that a 10% increase in the minimum wage reduces employment by 2.4%, and in the longer run by 6.9%.”

    Keli‘i Akina, Grassroot Institute of Hawaii president and CEO, said he hopes Ige will take a little more time to study this latest minimum-wage research before deciding on whether to sign HB2510 into law.

    “Gov. Ige has qualified economic advisers with whom he can discuss this,” Akina said. “I urge them all to read professor Neumark’s latest research so they can see for themselves that we simply must not enact the drastic wage increase that HB2510 calls for.”

    He continued: “There are many ways to help lower-income people increase their purchasing power and improve their standard of living, but increasing the state’s minimum wage isn’t one of them. If the governor wants more information about those other ways, the institute would be happy to offer suggestions, many of which are included in our 2020 report ‘Road map to prosperity: How Hawaii can recover and even excel after the coronavirus lockdowns.’”

    Akina hosted Neumark — one of the top 5% of published economists in the U.S. based on the number of his distinct works, citations and other criteria — on his “Hawaii Together” program in March on ThinkTech Hawaii to talk about the minimum wage, which you can view here. Akina also wrote two “President’s Corner” columns on the issue, hereand here.

    You can read the institute’s testimony on HB2510 here. And institute policy researcher Jensen Ahokovi produced an outstanding commentary on the issue, “Five myths about the minimum wage.” 
    ____________

    [1] David Neumark, Priyaranjan Jha and Antonio Rodriguez-Lopez, “What’s across the Border? Re-Evaluating the Cross-Border Evidence on Minimum Wage Effects,” IZA Institute of Labor Economics, May 2022.
    [2] Arindrajit Dube, T. William Lester and Michael Reich, “Minimum Wage Effects Across State Borders: Estimates Using Contiguous Counties,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2010. See also irle.berkeley.edu/files/2010/Minimum-Wage-Effects-Across-State-Borders.pdf.

    Questions persist about viability of Honolulu rail

    Grassroot Institute
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    Questions persist about viability of Honolulu rail

    By Keli’i Akina

    At this point, the one thing we can rely on concerning the Honolulu rail project is the long list of unanswered questions. Among them:

    >> How much will it really cost? 

    >> How will we pay for its future operations and maintenance? 

    >> Will it ever be completed, and if so, when? 

    Those were questions we were asking a decade ago, and those are questions that we are still asking now.

    In fact, I asked them again this past Monday on my “Hawaii Together” program on ThinkTech Hawaii, while hosting one of the most influential people in Hawaii who might know some of the answers: Natalie Iwasa.

    Iwasa spoke in her private capacity as a community activist, certified public accountant and licensed fraud investigator. But she also is a member of the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation, the city agency in charge of building the rail system. Throughout her 17-month tenure with HART, she has become well-known for asking the hard questions about the system that taxpayers want answered. 

    Natalie Iwasa

    Like many of us, Iwasa is concerned about costs. First, there is the final price tag on construction, which we’ve seen jump from its original price tag of $3.5 billion to its current estimate of nearly $13 billion. As big as that number is, it’s still smaller than the estimate for finishing the project in full.

    As Iwasa explained, the new plan involves ending the line at the Civic Center and making other cuts and changes, like eliminating the Pearl Highlands Parking Garage.

    “Really, the cost for that garage is outrageous,” she explained. “It was $330 million. I think it was like $200,000 per stall. To put that into perspective, this is actually in the plan. They had asked a contractor who recently built a garage on-island — I don’t know exactly where — but that cost was like $35,000 to $45,000 per stall. You can see HART’s estimate for the Pearl Highlands Garage is like four times as much. It is just outrageous.”

    The good news, Iwasa says, is that the wheel and track issues have been resolved and construction is more than half done. While some have said the rail is 75% complete, Iwasa prefers to think of it as closer to 64%, due to some stations that still need to be finished. 

    However, with several major hurdles still ahead, including complex construction requirements in the Dillingham area, Iwasa isn’t confident about the cost projections:

    “I personally don’t feel comfortable with the numbers because of the history,” she said. “The major contract we have is from Middle Street to now the Civic Center. We’ve seen time and time again how those estimates have been blown out of the water. So if that contract comes in higher than what is anticipated, or there’s something along Dillingham Boulevard with the utility relocation that comes up, it’s just going to really mess things up as far as the finances go.”

    Not only does she worry that the additional $1.4 billion being sought for completion of the project won’t be sufficient, she is concerned about ongoing operations costs. Ultimately, those will fall on the taxpayers, as the HART plan depends on taxes for continued funding. 

    As a CPA, Iwasa sees a “big flag” in the generous assumptions made about the state’s general excise and transient accommodations tax collections over the next 10 years, which don’t account for policies that could depress tourism, such as laws that resulted in an atypical bump in tax revenues and Honolulu County’s recently enacted Bill 41, which will largely wipe out Hawaii’s economically significant short-term rental market.

    Iwasa said she thinks things have improved under HART’s new leadership in terms of transparency, but HART’s lack of forthrightness still is hurting the project. For example, she said, HART last year produced a list of 25 alternatives to the current rail plans, yet it has never been part of a public discussion. 

    She also pointed to the agency’s new recovery plan, which would end the rail at the Civic Center and have its riders switch from there to “bus rapid transit.” 

    “The plan is to create a lot of feeder buses and take away some of the express buses. Why aren’t we putting that out there, so those people who are planning on riding the rail understand that they’re going to have to get on a bus, off the bus, on the rail, off the rail, on a bus, off the bus? I think those types of things are still not being discussed, and I’m sure there are other examples that people can come up with.”

    Of course, there are other questions as well. For example, if the Federal Transit Administration accepts the new plan, when and how will the rail be completed? And at what cost? 

    The fact that there is so much uncertainty surrounding the project makes it all the more important that the public stay involved and active. For Iwasa, public participation remains the most vital part of the process.

    “I just would really like to stress that people should testify,” she said. “I get it: People are tired of feeling like they’re not being heard. But it is so important, it is critical that you keep telling your decision-makers, your elected leaders, what you think. And, I tell you, it’s going to stay on the record and it’s so important. So that would be, I think, the most important comment that I can make.”

    To which I would add: Hear hear. I couldn’t agree more.
    __________

    Keli’i Akina is president and CEO of the Grassroot Institute of Hawaii.

    More Bills in the Home Stretch

    Tom Yamachika
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    More Bills in the Home Stretch

    In last week’s column we started a list of bills that the Hawaii Legislature has passed up to the Governor for action.  Here’s a list of some of the eyebrow-raising bills that have gone to the fifth floor.

    Senate Bill 3040 is a bill sponsored by the Department of Accounting and General Services, which handles a lot of the purchasing for the State.  It wants to build an automated procurement system that is electronic, accounting-oriented, multi-module, and data-based that integrates procurement activities from solicitation to contract management.  So far, so good; such a system sounds way better than the manually intensive processes we have now.  But part of the bill requires the procurement office to collect a transaction fee for the use of the procurement automation systems to cover the costs.  Which seems to mean that if I am selling something to the State and I want to get paid, I need to pay the State for the privilege of getting paid.  Even better, if I want to put in a bid so that the State might buy my products or services, I need to shell out a few bucks for the privilege of offering my wares, whether or not they get purchased.  Excuse me, but we already tax the businesses who are selling things to the State.  This bill, it seems, will raise the costs of things that the State purchases even more.

    House Bill 2179, sponsored by the Department of Taxation, allows the Department to convert tax liens to civil judgments if 365 days pass from the date of recording with no response or action by the taxpayer.  Why do they want to do this?  Recall that back in 2009, lawmakers adopted a 15-year statute of limitations for the collection of taxes, meaning that if you owe back taxes and the Department hasn’t managed to beat the money out of you in 15 years, the Department can stop searching for your money and leave you alone.  (The comparable period for federal taxes is ten years.)  But if this bill becomes law, a tax lien can be converted to a civil judgment just before the 15th year expires.  Civil judgments have their own life of ten years and can be extended for another ten years.  Meaning that the Department can do an end run around the 15-year statute of limitations and keep going after a hapless taxpayer for up to 35 years!  Unless, of course, the taxpayer takes “action” or makes a “response,” with neither term defined in the law.

    House Bill 137, another 2021 bill that got dusted off this session, deals with the county liquor commission and its powers to investigate liquor licensees.  There’s a State tax on liquor sales, and current law says that if a liquor commission investigator finds out that liquor tax hasn’t been paid the investigator can rat out the licensee to the Department of Taxation.  Under the bill, that will no longer be legal and the Department of Taxation will need to use its own investigative resources to root out liquor tax scofflaws.  I wonder if that means the Department of Taxation will need to be sending investigators to the local bars and buying drinks, at taxpayer expense, “to figure out whether they’re paying their taxes.”  In any event, it seems a waste to send law enforcement investigators in and prevent them from reporting any observed violations to another law enforcement agency.

    And, last but not least, Senate Bill 2379 allows the Department of Taxation’s Special Enforcement Section to examine any sector of the state’s economy, initiate civil investigations, and use enforcement and education to deter taxpayer noncompliance.  These are tasks entrusted to the Department generally, so why call them out specifically for this one piece of the Department?  The answer is money, of course.  The Special Enforcement Section can spend money in the Tax Administration Special (slush) Fund, which we have written about before.  That fund, which is fed by certain tax collections and fines, became a cash cow for the Department, so much so that the Legislature raided $15 million from the fund last session.  The Department, like many of the other state departments, apparently feels that it is entitled to grab some of the tax collections and use them for itself before the Legislature and the other departments get their grubby mitts on that moola.  This is a trend in government behavior that we should be reversing, not fostering.

    Again, June 27 is the next magic date – that’s when the Governor has to announce his “intent to veto” list.

    Lockdowns without limits can happen again if changes not made

    Grassroot Institute
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    Lockdowns without limits can happen again if changes not made

    By Melissa Newsham

    It has been more than two years since Hawaii’s coronavirus restrictions were put into place, and as they have slowly been lifted, life in the islands is finally starting  to resemble the pre-pandemic “normal.”

    We must remember, however, that these restrictions can easily be reinstated with the stroke of a pen because our state’s emergency-management law has not changed. 

    This could all happen again unless necessary checks are put in place. 

    Melissa
    Newsham

    Understandably, many seem to want to just forget about the crippling economic hardship, social isolation, ideological polarization and general uncertainty of the last two years. 

    Legislation has been proposed that would establish limits on the governor’s powers durng an emergency. However, it will all be for naught if it doesn’t ensure that so-called “emergencies’’ cannot be endlessly or arbitrarily renewed. 

    Throughout the lockdowns, the Grassroot Institute of Hawaii has been calling on our legislative leaders to put the brakes in place that would prevent the governor from perpetually renewing emergency orders without legislative approval.

    Hawaii’s COVID-19 restrictions are waning, but our emergency-management statute remains fundamentally the same. 

    So we should not feel like party poopers when the state still has the same tools in hand to shut down everyday activities — including schools and people’s livelihoods — for extended periods with virtually no limits. 

    We should celebrate the lifting of mandates and be encouraged by the economic recovery that is underway. 

    But let us continue to advocate for a better balance between the executive’s emergency powers, our freedoms and government accountability.
    ________

    Melissa Newsham is a research associate with the Grassroot Institute of Hawaii.

    Emergency powers reform would be crowning achievement for Gov. Ige

    Grassroot Institute
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    Emergency powers reform would be crowning achievement for Gov. Ige

    By Keli’i Akina

    The 2022 Legislative session is officially over, and now we turn to the governor.

    Which bills will he sign right away? Which will he veto? Which will he allow to become law without his signature?

    For a full analysis and discussion of the 2022 session, I urge you to attend the Grassroot Institute of Hawaii’s upcoming legislative wrap-up seminars, May 16, 17 and 18 in Honolulu, Kahului and Kailua-Kona, respectively, featuring three of my institute colleagues: Malia Blom Hill, Ted Kefalas and Joe Kent.

    However, for the benefit of Gov. David Ige, who has some big decisions ahead of him, I have some advice. Specifically, here are three bills he should sign immediately and two that he should veto:

    Sign: SB3089, the emergency powers bill.

    Since the earliest days of the coronavirus lockdowns, the Grassroot Institute has urged that Hawaii’s emergency management law be reformed. As we have all witnessed during the past two years, the law is vague in its discussion of emergency extensions and gives too much unchecked power to the executive. 

    SB3089 would correct those problems by insisting that the powers exercised must be consistent with the state Constitution, that any suspension of laws must be justified and that there should be some protection against the suspension of the state’s open-records law. Most critically, it would enable the Legislature to terminate an emergency period by a two-thirds vote. 

    I hope that the governor will recognize the importance of restoring the constitutional balance of powers and sign SB3089. Though the COVID-19 emergency is ending, we must be prepared to handle future emergencies. Reforming the emergency powers law is essential to our future.

    Veto: HB2510, the minimum-wage bill.

    Despite the pleas of business owners warning that such a steep wage hike could force them to close their doors, the Legislature went ahead and approved one anyway, in the form of HB2510. 

    The final compromise on the bill seeks to nearly double the existing minimum wage within six years, taking it to $18/hour by January 2028. Though it also would increase the tip credit over the same period and make the earned income tax credit permanent, that would not be enough to offset the damage this bill will likely cause.

    As the Grassroot Institute explained in its testimony on this bill, such a wage hike will hurt local businesses while doing little to help working families. If the point is to make Hawaii more affordable, then HB2510 is likely to have the opposite effect, operating as an anchor on our economic recovery. 

    The political pressure to enact this bill is significant, but the governor should look at the research on the minimum wage, veto this bill and choose a more effective way to help improve purchasing power in our state.

    Sign: SB514, the taxpayer refund.    

    It looks like Hawaii taxpayers are going to receive rebates of $100 to $300, but I am disappointed that the proposed refund isn’t greater. Given Hawaii’s current $4 billion surplus, a refund closer to $1,000 each would easily have been possible. 

    However, $300 for single filers with an adjusted gross income under $100,000 and joint filers under $200,000, and $100 for those with an income above each threshold is definitely better than the earlier suggestion of $100 for all. 

    The governor deserves praise for suggesting the taxpayer refund in the first place, and I can’t imagine that he won’t sign this bill. After the challenges of the last two years, Hawaii’s taxpayers deserve a break.

    Veto: HB1147, the HTA funding bill.

    There is a lot to criticize in the last-second rush to fund the Hawaii Tourism Authority. 

    Not only did the Legislature throw together two “gut and replace” bills with different approaches to oversight and funding of the HTA, it then discarded both in conference committee, leaving the tourism agency with no funding at all. At the last possible moment, a capital improvements bill from 2021 that never even mentioned the HTA was revived, “gutted” and “replaced” with a $60 million appropriation for the agency.

    Not only was the process to pass HB1147 flawed, it continues the questionable policy of using taxpayer funds to support the visitor industry. Tourism can pay for its own promotion without state funds. Gov. Ige should make a major policy statement by vetoing HB1147.

    Sign: HB1837, the “Yes in My Backyard” bill.

    An earlier version of HB1837, dubbed the “Yes In My Backyard” bill, would have required that the counties identify and remove their barriers to affordable housing. Its final version seeks only to create a working group that would report on efforts to reduce county barriers to affordable housing and propose legislation. 

    Admittedly, this would be just a small step towards dismantling the laws and regulations that make housing more expensive in our state, but it would be a step in the right direction.

    There are other important bills that Gov. Ige will be considering, but I hope he pays special attention to the ones listed above. 

    If you want to encourage him to do so — or if you want to voice your opinion on any pending legislation — you can write to him using the Grassroot Institute’s action page. It’s an easy way to make your voice heard. 

    After such a busy legislative season, I am thankful to all of you who participated in the process, whether you sent a letter, made a call or just supported those who did. 

    Let’s keep working together to make a better, more prosperous Hawaii.
    _____________

    Keli’i Akina is president and CEO of the Grassroot Institute of Hawaii.

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