BY PANOS PREVEDOUROS PHD – Bjørn Lomborg recently exposed Germany’s Sunshine Daydream. It’s the same daydream that Governor Abercrombie, PUC Chair Mina Morita and the local pseudo-greens have put in motion for Hawaii.
Like Germany, our results will be pathetic and the costs will be very high. Here are some highlights of Germany’s failed solar initiative:
- Despite the massive investment of $130 Billion, solar power accounts for only about 0.3% of Germany’s total energy.
- Germany is paying about $1,000 per ton of CO2 reduced. The current CO2 price in Europe is $8.
- Defenders of Germany’s solar subsidies also claim that they have helped to create “green jobs”. In China where the panels are made.
- German citizens now pay the second-highest price for electricity in the developed world.
- Denmark citizens now pay the highest price for electricity because they are the “world wind-energy champion.”
- Hawaii’s energy plan is focused on solar and wind, so we clearly know what the energy supply and cost future will be for Hawaii.
Hawaii citizens pay the same rate as Germany now, three (3) times the US average and if the current plan continues, Hawaii’s price for electricity will be five (5) times higher that mainland US.
However, this may be the least of Hawaii’s problem. Since wind and solar are intermittent, we will need to maintain archaic, oil burning generators for ever. In contrast, Denmark imports electricity from the hydroelectric plants of Scandinavia when wind dies down, and Germany imports electricity from France’s nuclear power plants. Hawaii has no such options so the outcome will be brown outs and explosive KWh cost. A true lose-lose plan is now in the works.
IF you doubt me, just read this PBN article dated March 7, 2012: Keahole Solar Power, HECO sign power-purchase agreement and compare it with my June 27, 2011 assessment (same company): Solar Power Plant on Oahu Does not Pass Muster
If you think that Hawaii has perfectly sunny conditions for solar, you’d be wrong. It has good conditions but far from perfect due to frequent cloudiness. Compare the Nevada desert clean solar pattern with Keahole Point on Oahu cloudy profile.
Let’s not forget that at best we get 8 to 10 hours of solar power per day, so with solar we need oil 60% to 70% of the time on a clear sunny day. For this reason, solar energy has a capacity factor of 25%. This means that a 100 MW solar photovoltaic plant is equivalent to a 25 MW oil or hydroelectric plant. A similar “capacity factor” applies to wind.
Solar thermal, like the Keahole Solar Power that HECO agreed to buy energy from and PUC is likely to rubber stamp, is defunct technology abandoned in Spain which once championed it, and by Google.
Google cans solar energy project
Even when you have all the money of Google, you should spend it wisely. The search giant, which invests heavily in renewable energy initiatives, backed off of at least one of them yesterday.
Google said it is dropping development of “solar thermal” electricity because solar thermal cannot keep pace with the rapid price decline of another solar technology – photovoltaics.
On November 29, 2011, I sent the article about Google’s decision to PUC chair Mina Morita, Governor and State Legislature. Apparently, unlike Google, they did not care to spend money wisely.
HECO is in a position of technological and cost-effectiveness indifference caused by mandates. It agreed to a power purchase at 33.5 cents per KWh from hyper-expensive and under-performing Sopogy technology. Note that’s 33.5 cents per KWh at the production site. It will reach residences at over 50 cents per KWh, or five times US mainland average. So the exorbitant pricing future I was talking about before… is here already!
PUC chair Mina Morita, Governor and State Legislature received this article on March 16, 2012.
PANOS: Keep up the good work. I think you are on to something. Perhaps you should run for a seat in the State Senate or House of Representative where your voice can have a meaningful impact. Not one of the incumbent legislators have your knowledge and training. You would contribute immensely to a dialogue that is not taking place at the State Capital. Your last paragraph says a lot and explains the reason why the company is so very quiet on issues that directly impact the ratepayers.
Mahalo Glenn. Unfortunately the company’s CEO has the ear of the Governor and both, sooner or later, will embarass themselves because their cost and productivity numbers are so bad.
What’s up with the ‘can’t do’ all-negative tone here? What’s your thesis, other than that those in charge are ill-informed and that PV has daytime-only limitations? No mention of what direction YOU think we should be taking? That’s not helpful nor what I would hope for in a would-be leader – and yes, I voted for you in hopes of killing rail – but do you want to kill /everything/? No one should move ahead with PV because that’ll make HECO’s oil/coal-driven power too expensive for the rest of us?
It’s disingenuous (or deliberate?) that you don’t mention 24/7 renewables like wind, geothermal, OTEC and wave energy that would augment solar to comprise a more diversified energy portfolio, along with various storage schemes, all of which take away from your argument that when the sun goes down, we’ll still need HECO’s oil/coal mix as it now exists. You /are/ an engineer and not a professional naysayer, right?
Dave,
I’d be the last one to “take cheap shots” and leave the room when it comes to infrastructure. I know that there are better solutions and alternatives. That’s why I take a NO position on what’s on offer. As you said, I oppose rail, because there are far better and cheaper solutions. I oppose thermal solar and interisland cables because they are millions and billions of dollars, respectively, wasted on non-solutions. Here is a glimpse of my “solution portfolio” which I have not had time to update on the web because since then we wasted 2 years of doing nothing of substance. As you see it does include generous portions of geothermal, biomass and PV, which some wind and coal also in the mix: https://www.hawaiireporter.com/wp-admin/edit-comments.php
Mahalo for your thoughts.
Dave: I do not believe Panos is a “can’t do all-negative” person. Given his engineering background and his position as a professor in the School of Engineering at the University of Hawaii, I think he is uniquely in position to raise the question as provided in his article. I have yet to see the actual numbers for what it would cost the ratepayers to install and meet the goals of the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative. Truly a worthy goal, but none of its advocates, be they the utility executives, the governor or the legislature, have done any meaningful study on the many projects that would be required nor have they laid out the total costs for the infrastructure needed. In the end, there is no free lunch. It will simply translate into a HUGE cost to the ratepayers who will ultimately be the ones to pay for the entire ventures. Capital will need to be raised and paid for as will the interest costs and the profits to be earned by those who invested in these projects. As I said in my first note to Panos, the utility company has been very quiet about the impacts on the ratepayers. Why? Should they not be stewards of the ratepayers and not be beholden to the politicians and special interest groups who are driving the agendas?
There was a time when the ratepayers could count on the Consumer Advocate of the Department of Commerce and Consumer Affairs to vigorously represent them. Today, the moneyed interests on renewable energy have taken over and became the architects of the policies on energy. The State political leaders have simply gone along, succumbing to their well crafted message of fear and uncertainties. Sadly, the Consumer Advocate lost their way when they too succumbed to those interests. The ratepayers no longer have a truly legitimate body in the Consumer Advocate that effectively represents them as the law had envisioned it to be. Linda Lingle and now Abercrombie have completely emasculated their functions and rendered them simply as their political mouthpiece. Given the persons appointed to the PUC, they too have headed in the same direction. Panos’ prediction that the utility company and the governor will one day be embarrassed is a warning that should be heeded.
[…] solar and wind, so we clearly know what the energy supply and cost future will be for Hawaii. Germany’s Solar Failure is a Big Lesson for Hawaii | Hawaii Reporter __________________ To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. […]
So the whole fact that you take money from oil companies and EVERY major news outlet is reporting that Germany's solar power output is up 50% means nothing eh? https://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-11-05/german-…
So it's at 0.5% now?
Even when you have all the cash of Look for engines, you should invest it smartly. The search massive, which spends intensely in electricity projects, supported off of at least one of them last night.
[…] is Boone T. Pickens with his wind energy? Remember those ads? How about this biased source? Germany?s Solar Failure is a Big Lesson for Hawaii | Hawaii Reporter Of course all of this renewable stuff might be important if Global Warming were a fact and not the […]
And our Us president wants to "double-down" on renewables – especially solar, wind and ethanol? Oh, I didn't keep in mind, and plankton. The government needs to stage aside and allow the 100 % 100 % free market to operate. Stop burdening us with all the making an investment that is gong nowhere.
Denmark imports electricity from the hydroelectric plants of Scandinavia when wind dies down, and Germany imports electricity from France's nuclear power plants. Hawaii has no such options so the outcome will be brown outs and explosive KWh cost. A true lose-lose plan is now in the works.
If you think that Hawaii has perfectly sunny conditions for solar, you'd be wrong. It has good conditions but far from perfect due to frequent cloudiness. Compare the Nevada desert clean solar pattern with Keahole Point on Oahu cloudy profile.
"It has to allow independent privacy auditors to inspect the company for the next 20 years
Yeah, that has almost no chances of happening
Comments are closed.